Dementia cases predicted to soar

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ABC News

By national medical reporter Sophie Scott and staff

An Alzheimer's Australia report says the number of Australians with dementia will quadruple to more than 1.1 million people by 2050.

There are currently almost 250,000 people living with dementia in Australia. The first baby boomers turn 65 next year, and by 2020 there will be 75,000 baby boomers with dementia.

The new figures are a substantial increase from predictions four years ago and Alzheimer's Australia chief Glenn Rees says the ageing population is to blame.

"The main driver of the increase in numbers is the success of medical science in keeping us healthy for longer so we're living longer, and as we've lived longer dementia becomes more of an issue," he said.

"The biggest risk factor for dementia is age, there are other risk factors but age is the predominant one."

Mr Rees says the projections are dramatic, but are credible.

"They're based on ABS population projections and the prevalence rates that Access Economics use are very much an average of those that epidemiologists around the world have calculated," he said.

"The research that underlies these kinds of figures has been around for a number of years."

The organisation is calling for more money for research, as none of the current medications can stop or slow the progression of the condition.

"There are 30 or 40 compounds that pharmaceutical companies have in development that may help and modify the disease progression; at the moment the only medications we have really address symptoms not the cause. Within three to five years we may have medications that help slow the disease or, if they are very effective, prevent it.

"The first thing is to try and reduce the numbers in the future if we can, but meanwhile we know whatever we do there's going to be many, many more people with dementia needing care.

"The growth of services both within the health system - primary care, hospitals, as well as community and residential care - will need to be sensitive to the needs of people with dementia."

Mr Rees says the report also very deliberately looked at people from non-English speaking backgrounds who suffer from dementia.

"The report shows that by the middle of this century there would be 120,000 people with dementia who don't speak English at home - that clearly presents a lot of difficulties in terms of language, in terms of culturally appropriate services and having services flexible enough to respond to the needs of people from very different backgrounds."


Dementia cases predicted to soar